class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide .title[ # Overview of Forecasting Strategy ] .subtitle[ ## Topics for discussion ] .author[ ### Mark Scheuerell<br><br><br>(use the arrows keys to navigate the slide deck) ] --- # Forecasting strategy .pull-left[ ### .blue[1) Assess & understand objectives] ] --- # 1) Assess & understand objectives ### .blue[Who is involved?] -- ### .blue[Harvest vs conservation?] -- ### .blue[Escapement goal vs exploitation rate?] -- ### .blue[Pre-season vs in-season?] --- # Forecasting strategy .pull-left[ ### .green[1) Assess & understand objectives] ### .blue[2) Gather information] ] --- # 2) Gather information ### .blue[Who holds the data?] -- ### .blue[Harvest + escapement?] -- ### .blue[Age composition?] -- ### .blue[Smolts?] -- ### .blue[Environmental covariates?] --- # Forecasting strategy .pull-left[ ### .green[1) Assess & understand objectives] ### .green[2) Gather information] ### .blue[3) Decide on modeling framework] ] --- # 3) Decide on modeling framework ### .blue[Sibling regression vs environmental? Both?] -- ### .blue[Observation & process errors? (state-space)] -- ### .blue[Counts? Age comp? Mark-recapture? (integrated population model)] --- # Forecasting strategy .pull-left[ ### .green[1) Assess & understand objectives] ### .green[2) Gather information] ### .green[3) Decide on modeling framework] ### .blue[4) Choose time horizons] ] --- # 4a) Choose time horizons | fitting vs forecasting <img src="forecasting_overview_files/figure-html/forecast_horizon-1.png" width="90%" height="90%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- class: center # Balanced but perhaps overly optimistic <img src="forecasting_overview_files/figure-html/forecast_1515-1.png" width="90%" height="90%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- class: center # Fitting-focused but evaluation challenged <img src="forecasting_overview_files/figure-html/forecast_2505-1.png" width="90%" height="90%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- # 4b) Choose time horizons | steps ahead? <img src="forecasting_overview_files/figure-html/forecast_ahead-1.png" width="90%" height="90%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- # Forecasting strategy .pull-left[ ### .green[1) Assess & understand objectives] ### .green[2) Gather information] ### .green[3) Decide on modeling framework] ### .green[4) Choose time horizons] ] .pull-right[ ### .blue[5) Fit model & generate forecast] ] --- # 5) Fit model & generate forecast ### .blue[Bayesian? Priors?] -- ### .blue[Software?] --- # Forecasting strategy .pull-left[ ### .green[1) Assess & understand objectives] ### .green[2) Gather information] ### .green[3) Decide on modeling framework] ### .green[4) Choose time horizons] ] .pull-right[ ### .green[5) Fit model & generate forecast] ### .blue[6) Evaluate fit & skill] ] --- # 6) Evaluate fit & skill ### .blue[Accuracy & Precision?] -- ### .blue[Model comparisons? Versus naïve?] --- # Forecasting strategy .pull-left[ ### .green[1) Assess & understand objectives] ### .green[2) Gather information] ### .green[3) Decide on modeling framework] ### .green[4) Choose time horizons] ] .pull-right[ ### .green[5) Fit model & generate forecast] ### .green[6) Evaluate fit & skill] ### .blue[7) Report results] ] --- # 7) Report results ### .blue[Clearly communicated?] -- ### .blue[Uncertainties?] -- ### .blue[Open and reproducible?] --- # Forecasting strategy .pull-left[ ### .green[1) Assess & understand objectives] ### .green[2) Gather information] ### .green[3) Decide on modeling framework] ### .green[4) Choose time horizons] ] .pull-right[ ### .green[5) Fit model & generate forecast] ### .green[6) Evaluate fit & skill] ### .green[7) Report results] ### .blue[8) Refine & repeat] ] --- # 8) Refine & repeat ### .blue[How did we do? Were mistakes made?] -- ### .blue[Update data & priors?] -- ### .blue[Update model(s)?]